Canadians see Chretien's departure as advantage: poll

By DONALD MCKENZIE

MONTREAL (CP) - About 60 per cent of Canadians thought recently that Jean Chretien's departure as prime minister would be an advantage for the country, suggests an opinion poll.

Nineteen per cent of respondents in the Leger Marketing survey said Chretien's moving on would be a disadvantage for Canada, while 22 per cent refused to answer or said they didn't know.

The poll also suggested 39 per cent of Canadians believed Paul Martin would make a better prime minister than Chretien, while 25 per cent thought the opposite. A significant 36 per cent said they didn't know or refused to answer.

A range of questions on Chretien's performance in various areas indicated his harshest critics in the Oct. 7-15 poll were Albertans, while most of his top marks came in his home province of Quebec, where sovereigntists have long accused him of betraying the province's interests.

One political science professor said Chretien's longevity - he has been prime minister since 1993 - was likely a factor in 59 per cent of respondents viewing his departure as a plus for Canada.

"People feel he's been around a long time," the University of Ottawa's Francois-Pierre Gingras said in an interview. "And even those who like him feel it's time that he step down.

"To say it's an advantage for Canada may simply reflect the fact he's given his contribution and it's now time for someone else, which in itself is not a negative reflection or negative assessment of Jean Chretien."

The national results in the poll of 1,505 Canadians are considered accurate within 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margins of error for the regional breakdowns are higher.

Albertans, at 75 per cent, ranked the highest among those believing Chretien's departure would be beneficial.

Other provincial breakdowns along the same lines were: the Atlantic provinces, 63 per cent; Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 61; Ontario, 59; British Columbia, 58; and Quebec, 52.

Gingras said the difference in the Alberta and Quebec numbers can be explained.

"In Alberta, it's more a reflection on Jean Chretien than on the timing," he said. "In Alberta, there is not much sympathy for the Liberal party, so it might simply be a partisan reaction.

"In Quebec, it's true that the perception of Jean Chretien has been pretty negative for a number of years but I think that with the demise of the Bloc Quebecois, the defeat of the Parti Quebecois and the decline in popularity of independence, for many people there's a vacuum and what's left in the vacuum is the old slipper you've got used to and which is comfortable."

According to the poll, Quebecers were more satisfied with Chretien's performance in four out of five given topics - gay marriage, the U.S.-Iraq conflict, the environment and his contribution to Canada's international image - than were other Canadians.

The only area where Quebecers did not lead was Chretien's relations with people's respective provincial government.

Leger Marketing vice-president Christian Bourque noted Chretien has boosted his support in Quebec since he became Liberal leader in 1990.

"We know that francophone media in Quebec have had a tendency to be very tough on Mr. Chretien over the years," Bourque said in an interview.

"But if you actually look at what he's been able to pull off in terms of opinion polling, he's managed to take bites of public opinion and move it over to his side in a way that's very uncommon.

"He's probably one of the most respected leaders in Quebec. Who would have thought that?"

Only five percentage points separated all the provinces on the question of whether Martin would make a better prime minister than Chretien.

But Quebec had the highest percentage (33) when it came to respondents who thought Martin would not make a better prime minister than Chretien.

Gingras said people are still wearing rose-coloured glasses when they look at Martin, who is all but assured of winning the Liberal leadership next month and becoming prime minister after Chretien leaves next February.

"Right now, Paul Martin has a lot of advantages, in that he hasn't had to make unpopular decisions because he wasn't in the prime minister's seat.

"He's still in the honeymoon period and the honeymoon will last a few months after he becomes prime minister.

"Actually, in this case, it's not really a honeymoon, it's the engagement. He has proposed and the proposal has been accepted."