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PC support is falling - Friday, September 12, 2003 at 11:52

September 7, 2003
PC support is falling
By NEIL WAUGH -- Edmonton Sun
Back in March, when Premier Ralph Klein appeared to be feeling a little
uneasy about his party's status among right-thinking Albertans, he
issued a three-point plan to hopefully get a little respect from Ottawa.

About that time, the eastern-based Ipsos Reid polling company conducted
a survey that found our Ralphy as popular as ever with the folks he
calls "severely normal" Albertans. The premier received his usual 67%
approval rating.

But when it came to his party, it was an entirely different matter.

The once-mighty PCs could have only counted on 50% support if an
election had been held back in February.

By any other standards in the country, that kind of support is stunning
and unheard of.

But Alberta is not the rest of the country.

Klein's attempt to head off a floor fight at the PCs' annual convention
in Red Deer was to pitch three stress-free proposals as a sign that he
was finally willing to stand up to the Ottawa Liberals: Annual first
ministers meetings, appointment of Alberta's elected senators, and
provincial input into international treaties.

The potentially destructive Kyoto agreement is the most obvious example
of the need for the last point.

Sadly, they went over like a lead balloon among convention delegates.

But Klein persisted. And he promised to discuss the whole growing issue
of western alienation and Alberta's role in Confederation at the annual
caucus retreat in the fall.

Considering a poll conducted by the meek and mild Canada West Foundation
suggested that 25% of Albertans felt they would be better off
economically outside of the present federal straightjacket, it's little
wonder that Klein decided to pay attention last spring.

But after that, the PC MLAs pretty well devoted their summer to the
golf- tournament-and-barbecue circuit.

And when the caucus retreat rolled around last week the Ottawa-busting
stuff was nowhere to be seen on the agenda.

"We'll probably have to have a caucus meeting devoted strictly to that
issue," Klein sighed, muttering something about the reports not being
ready or some other lame excuse.

And, anyway, there were more pressing political brushfires to put out.
Or rather, put off until another day.

The premier did commit to a natural gas rebate.

"Hopefully, we will have it in place by this winter," the premier said.

Well, here's hoping, Ralph.

And the same goes for the auto insurance fiasco and the power bill soap
opera.

Not to mention the mistrust and angry backlash that will inevitably
occur if cow-calf operators don't get the same kind of aid that the
multinational packing plants and corporate feedlots got during the mad
cow crisis that closed the U.S. border.

In fact, it may actually be happening, if a poll taken by Calgary's JMCK
Communications bears any relationship to the true political feelings of
Albertans, and especially rural Albertans where the Alberta PCs draw a
large chunk of their support. Or, at least, they used to.

Over 1,000 Albertans were surveyed in telephone interviews between Aug.
16 and 20. So there's no disputing the sample of the poll.

And the shift in voter preference the pollsters recorded was pretty
remarkable.

Unless you are a Tory. Then it's somewhat scary.

Overall, the PCs have toppled mightily from when Ipsos Reid asked
essentially the same question in February. Only 33.5% of Albertans
contacted say they would vote PC if an election were held now. Last
November, Ipsos Reid had the PCs as high as 59%.

The Liberals are in their traditional second place with their usual
19.3% support. Same goes for the New Democrats at 9.6%.

Plus, there's a large undecided vote at 19.9%.

But in this poll, when the Alberta Alliance party is added to the list
of choices, 13.7% of Albertans surveyed said that's where their vote is
going.

For a party that has kept a political profile lower than a snake's gut
in a rut, that's remarkable indeed. Maybe it has more to do with
misguided name recognition than the almost total lack of activity by the
Alberta Alliance brass.

But there's an even more disturbing statistic for the complacent and
increasingly disconnected Tories.

When the voter intentions are split on big city versus rural lines, only
29.8% in the "rest of Alberta" category said they would vote PC if an
election were held tomorrow.

Blame it on the power and gas issue.

Or the PCs' inability to stand up for Albertans against the Ottawa
Liberals.

But Alberta's great ruling party just recorded almost a 30-point drop in
popularity in less than a year among what they always assumed to be
their bedrock support group.

In political terms, that's called a swift kick in the pants.

I wonder if Ralph and the Tories felt anything?