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Payback time - Sunday, July 27, 2003 at 23:43

July 20, 2003
Payback time
U.S. ban on our beef may be about more than one mad cow
By RICK BELL -- Calgary Sun

Erik Butters, a Cochrane cattleman, was in on Friday's meeting between Shirley McClellan, Alberta's embattled agriculture minister, and the bigs of the beef business.

The group wondered what could be done as an important industry collapses in front of their very eyes, because of one mad cow.

"As long as this goes along it will make the National Energy Program look like a blip. We're headed down the road of losing half the cattle industry," says Erik.

There was a plan in place.

Plan A was opening the border. Now we have Plan B, since our beef can no longer pass through the world's longest and now definitely defended border. Kill cattle, lots of cattle. Kill any number beyond what Canadians can consume.

Erik is not even thinking of this worst of worst-case scenarios.

"Killing healthy cattle is beyond my grasp. Where would you start? Who goes when? Would you start with older cows and work your way down? I can't even go there," says Erik, who is on the executive of the Alberta Beef Producers.

Talk, premature though it may be, begins on the possible price tag of this pain. Butters says just the compensation for the culling of cows would be "in the hundreds of millions."

Others concur, counting the total price tag for all payouts in ten devastating digits.

A billion bucks.

"I would expect the federal and provincial governments will have to put in somewhere around a billion dollars, it could be up to a billion-dollar draw on the taxpayer to stabilize the beef industry," says Ken Nicol, provincial Liberal leader and a Lethbridge-area grain farmer.

"They've already spent $360 million to cover feedlot animals. Then there's another $400 million for the livestock on farms that would have to be killed. Then there's around $200 million more for other farm sectors who can't market their product at the normal price.

"Even with this, a lot of smaller farmers will go out of business. Those who survive will suffer the hardship."

Ken's comments this day are not made with any gloating or glee.

In fact, through this cow calamity, the opposition boss has avoided opposing for the sole sake of scoring points.

"If the border does not open by mid-September, we are in a real crisis since that's when cattle start going to auction. Right now, the cow-calf guys have money to keep going but in the fall when they need money to pay their bills they won't have it and the banks will come calling," says Ken.

The idea of the locals bulking up on beef is of limited value.

"We would have to eat twice the amount of meat today and not reduce our intake of chicken and pork. That's impossible, especially with the health people telling us to eat less. We must get the border open."

Ken says it is time our side presents the Americans with a guarantee. Present trade agreements don't outline what is needed to open the border so it is left to political pressure.

That's rude reality and the clock on the cows is ticking.

"Canada is clean. The scientists have done everything they needed to do and the facts are there," says Ken, and even the American authorities agree.

"What we have to do is guarantee when an animal is marked for testing there has to be a normal expected timeline. Then we have go and ask them if this normal turnover time, seven days, ten days, is acceptable. If not, we have to find out what they need. If we don't do that, they can't trust us."

Butters, however, says what is on many minds.

Payback time.

"There is an element down there who say: If we can make the Canadians sweat a little. I mean, if you call me a moron a few times see what I do for you," he says.

Ken Nicol maintains the mood is menacing in the heartland.

"There is a sense of not one another. It is really depressing," he says, referring to last year's drought.

But, with the drought, one could always pray for rain.

What do we do now, pray for politicians to put partisanship aside and act for the common good?

"You kind of get to a point you don't know what it's going to take. This could be forever."