|
| Key Liberals fear loss of 25 Ontario seats - Friday, March 05, 2004 at 10:48 |
|
PUBLICATION: The Ottawa Citizen -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Key Liberals fear loss of 25 Ontario seats: But strategists feel majority still possible with gains in Atlantic Canada, the West -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Key Liberal strategists fear they could lose up to 25 seats in Ontario and that the party will be fortunate if it can keep the 37 seats it has in Quebec in a spring election. But senior Grits involved in election preparations are confident gains can be made in Atlantic Canada and perhaps a few in the West, enough to squeak by with a majority government. "We could hit the high 80s in Ontario, but I don't think we'll go below 80 seats if everything is clicking fine," said a senior election strategist. "In Quebec, we should be able to hold the seats we have but we could maybe get 40. We're still in majority territory for a spring election." Liberals have 96 of 103 Ontario seats although, following redistribution in April, the number of ridings will grow to 106. The Ontario losses are anticipated in southwestern and southeastern rural Ontario where a merged Conservative party is expected to make gains, say sources. Insiders feel ridings such as Lanark-Carleton and Leeds-Grenville in the Ottawa area, down through Pickering-Ajax and the Oshawa region are vulnerable to the new right-wing party, as well as Huron-Bruce, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Waterloo-Wellington and Halton. The New Democratic Party could also pick up a few seats in the Toronto and Windsor regions as well as Sault Ste. Marie, sources feel. Liberal MPs Dennis Mills and Tony Ianno are vulnerable to the NDP. NDP leader Jack Layton is running in Mr. Mills' Toronto-Danforth riding, and Mr. Layton's wife, Olivia Chow, a Toronto city councillor, is considering a run in Mr. Ianno's Trinity-Spadina. The $100-million sponsorship scandal could take a real toll in Quebec where Grits expect the Bloc Quebecois to make gains. Although some Liberals believe the party will be lucky if it can retain its Quebec seats, others are a little more optimistic. "Comments that were made in English Canada that Quebec is full of a bunch of corrupt people didn't help. Quebecers are very proud. It's not a question of reacting against the Liberals, it's a question of reacting against the rest of Canada at the voting booth by voting for the Bloc," said a senior Liberal. Liberals are banking on Prime Minister Paul Martin's popularity to counter any opposition gains. They point to internal polling that shows the PM surveys 15-per-cent higher in popularity than the Liberal party. Insiders also say they expect a major theme in the upcoming election will be leadership and that Mr. Martin will easily outperform his competitors, even though it will not be known until a leadership vote March 20 who will take the Conservatives into the next election. "This will be more of a leaders' campaign than an issues campaign," said a senior Liberal. "Martin has a proven track record." Polls conducted in the wake of the sponsorship scandal saw the Grits plummet to 39- per-cent approval, down from 48 per cent in January. That has stabilized somewhat at about 42 per cent. The surprise was that the Conservatives, even without a leader, polled significantly higher than they ever have at 32 per cent. Strategists say Mr. Martin will spend a great deal of time in vulnerable Quebec and Ontario ridings during the election campaign. "You put your leader where you can have the most effect -- in the swing ridings," said an insider. The source pointed out that Mr. Martin has already been campaigning in some of the problematic ridings. Specifically, Liberal MP John O'Reilly, who would have likely been trounced in the 2000 election had there been a merged right-wing party, and Joe Jordan of Leeds-Grenville, who only won his seat by 55 votes last time, each received visits by the prime minister recently. Mike Crawley, president of the Ontario wing of the federal Liberal party, acknowledges Ontario and Quebec are especially vulnerable, but he insists it is no different than any other election in the past 10 years. "Every election, people talk about what the vulnerable ridings are. This time around we once again have very strong candidates in each of those ridings ... and we've got a very popular prime minister who will be leading the election campaign ... so we're certainly quite confident," said Mr. Crawley. Senior Grits involved in election preparations say plans are well under way with election pamphlets, signs, and artwork ready to go for a spring call. The Liberal election team released a "nomination update" to media organizations yesterday, the first of a series, revealing the party has nominated 97 candidates, about one-third of the total 307 to be nominated. British Columbia is well below the national average for nominating candidates with only six of a total 36 nominated to date. |